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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd