A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
